Tag: science

Eleventh Day of Christmas

Liberal democracy versus Populism

For those bewildered by why so many Americans apparently voted against the values of liberal democracy, Balint Magyar has a useful formulation. “Liberal democracy,” he says, “offers moral constraints without problem-solving” — a lot of rules, not a lot of change — while “populism offers problem-solving without moral constraints.” Magyar, a scholar of autocracy, isn’t interested in calling Donald Trump a fascist. He sees the president-elect’s appeal in terms of something more primal: “Trump promises that you don’t have to think about other people.”

M. Gessen, New York Times

Limited supply, infinite demand

What a lot of people who are celebrating Thompson’s death and demonizing UnitedHealthcare don’t seem to understand—or don’t seem to want to understand—is that in every modern health-care system, some institution is charged with rationing care. In some, it’s a government bureaucracy. In others, it’s a private for-profit or nonprofit insurer. In America, it’s a mix of all three. Many insurers, such as Blue Cross Blue Shield and Kaiser Permanente, are nonprofits. The biggest insurers are Medicare and Medicaid, which are single-payer public programs. So is the Veterans Affairs Department. Other insurers are for-profit companies, like UnitedHealthcare.

You don’t have to be a fan of the way that UnitedHealthcare makes its decisions to acknowledge the difficulty of mediating between providers and patients. Private insurers make their rationing decisions in ways that are relatively transparent but always far from perfectly simple or fair. But if they didn’t do it, someone else would need to, Yuval Levin of the American Enterprise Institute told me. The reality of scarcity is not their fault, nor is it “social murder.”

Peter Wehner (emphasis added)

“Scarcity” doesn’t mean we should educate more doctors, build more hospitals, etc. (nor that we shouldn’t). It means that aggregate demand for healthcare services will always exceed the funds available to pay for them all, in every imaginable system of funding healthcare.

Everybody knows the Emperor is naked

[I]f you want to understand what happened in politics this year, you can get by with two sentences from the Washington Post: “[Joe] Biden and some of his aides still believe he should have stayed in the race, despite the rocky debate performance and low poll numbers that prompted Democrats to pressure him to drop out. Biden and these aides have told people in recent days that he could have defeated [Donald] Trump, according to people familiar with their comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.”

…

Never Trump is heavy on moralizing, and how could it not be? Trump hasn’t just upended the conservative agenda, he’s cultivated an anti-morality in the American right that’s turned scumminess into a leadership credential. For Reaganites of a certain age, watching traditional “values” voters grant moral carte blanche to a seedy authoritarian is so baffling that it leaves one thinking there must be a conscientious impulse still buried in them somewhere that might be roused if only the right appeal can be made.

And so we Never Trumpers often end up behaving like the child in The Emperor’s New Clothes. If only we say out loud that the emperor is wearing nothing at all—and say it and say it and say it—the spell will eventually be broken and the crowd will come to its senses. By all means, run Liz Cheney out on the campaign trail with Kamala Harris and have her recite the thousandth iteration of her civic indictment of Trumpism. Maybe the thousandth time will be the charm.

… Most Americans understand very well, after all, that Emperor Trump is sleazy, oafish, and dangerous. But they concluded that there would still be more upside to his presidency, warts and all, than to Harris’.

They know the emperor is naked. They watched the news on January 6. They either like it that way, as Trump’s base does, or they don’t care overly much, as swing voters ultimately did not. Never Trumpers reminding them of it incessantly anyway—surely you’re not going to reelect the coup-plotter—resembles the so-called definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Nick Catoggio

Nick has given a good description of me for the last eight-or-so years. I finally grokked why voters might reject the Democrats in favor of Trump (for instance), but I’d cast a protest vote for Angela Davis first, I think.

And that’s quite apart from the absurd journalistic murmurations to protect Joe Biden.

A wan Audie Murphy

I am an admirer of Audie Murphy, the celebrated yet troubled hero who was the most decorated U.S. soldier of World War II but struggled with mental illness and addiction for the rest of his relatively short life before dying at the age of 45 … 

He was a hell of a soldier, by all accounts. 

Nobody ever thought he should be secretary of defense. 

Pete Hegseth is something of a soft echo of Audie Murphy—an Ivy League version for our wan times. Like Murphy, Hegseth served honorably in combat (you will have heard that he was awarded two Bronze Stars), went into the entertainment business (his last job was as one of the hosts of Fox & Friends Weekend), took up drinking, wrecked some marriages (he is on his third), etc. He is today one year younger than Murphy was when he died. 

Hegseth has an excellent general education, having done his undergraduate degree at Princeton and his master’s in public policy at Harvard. Harvard’s MPP program will graduate almost 700 students in its next class, and those are the only 700 people in the world who think any of them ought to be the next secretary of defense.

Kevin D. Williamson

Scientific realism

European scientists have started work on a project to create simple forms of life from scratch in the lab, capitalizing on theoretical and experimental advances in the fast-growing field of synthetic biology … “Success would constitute a landmark achievement in basic science,” said Eörs Szathmáry, director of the Centre for the Conceptual Foundations of Science at the Parmenides Foundation in Germany, who is a principal investigator on the ERC grant. “De-novo creation of living systems is a long-standing dream of humanity.”

John Ellis (hyperlink relocated from omitted text)

For the records, de-novo creation of living systems is not a dream of mine. Rather, I think of C.S. Lewis when I read things like this: “Man’s ‘power over nature’ is the power of some men over other men with nature as their instrument.”

Wonder not

Wonder not that Evangelicals are ga-ga over Donald Trump. “Evangelicalism is Protestant populism.” (Brad East, Conversions, Protestantism, and a new mainline)

God, Human Rights and other woo-woo

[T]he existence of human rights [is] no more provable than the existence of God.

Tom Holland, Dominion

I suffer more from the humiliations inflicted by my country than from those inflicted on her.

Simone Weil, from a letter to Georges Bernanos.

I don’t do any of the major social media, but I have two sub-domains of the domain you’re currently reading: (a) You can read most of my reflexive stuff, especially political here. (b) I also post some things on the only social medium I frequent, because people there are quirky, pleasant and real.

Tuesday, 7/8/23

Doctors speak with forked tongue

The AAP is, first and foremost, a trade union. “Professional medical association” is a less apt description than “association of medical professionals.” Teachers unions care about education but give their own and their members’ interests priority over those of students. So too the AAP has strong incentives to defend its own interests and those of member doctors—especially those who have publicly endorsed or facilitated sex-trait modification—even when that is harmful to patients.

…

Because the AAP apparently recognizes the superiority of systematic reviews, it should defer, while the review process is under way, to the systematic reviews conducted by the U.K. National Institute for Health Care Excellence in 2020 and updated last week. A slew of new systematic reviews touching on a wide range of topics related to pediatric gender medicine is expected to come out in the U.K. well before the AAP systematic review is completed. When they do, the AAP should embrace their findings.

Last August the AAP president said that her organization’s policy was based on “the best science.” But if systematic reviews are the appropriate way to evaluate the evidence, and if every systematic review to date has found that the evidence is exceptionally weak, how can the AAP continue to maintain that its current approach is evidence-based? Mr. Del Monte was evasive on this point. The Europeans, he said, “engaged in their process, we’re engaging in our process.”

Leor Sapir, Second Thoughts on ‘Gender-Affirming Care’

Kill the corporations?

Alan Jacobs offers two quotes on corporations. I’ll only reproduce the second, from James Bridle (2022), though the first reinforces this second: 

In the last few years, I have given talks at conferences and spoken on panels about the social impacts of new technology, and as a result I am sometimes asked when ‘real’ AI will arrive – meaning the era of super-intelligent machines, capable of transcending human abilities and superseding us. When this happens, I often answer: it’s already here. It’s corporations. This usually gets an uncertain half-laugh, so I explain further. We tend to imagine AI as embodied in something like a robot, or a computer, but it can really be instantiated as anything. Imagine a system with clearly defined goals, sensors and effectors for reading and interacting with the world, the ability to recognize pleasure and pain as attractors and things to avoid, the resources to carry out its will, and the legal and social standing to see that its needs are catered for, even respected. That’s a description of an AI – it’s also a description of a modern corporation…. Corporate speech is protected, corporate personhood recognized, and corporate desires are given freedom, legitimacy and sometimes violent force by international trade laws, state regulation – or lack thereof – and the norms and expectations of capitalist society. Corporations mostly use humans as their sensors and effectors; they also employ logistics and communications networks, arbitrage labour and financial markets, and recalculate the value of locations, rewards and incentives based on shifting input and context. Crucially, they lack empathy, or loyalty, and they are hard – although not impossible – to kill.

The nominal state and the parastate

Consider the spectacle of a patriotic parade, with lots of flags waving and floats sponsored by various businesses. The Fourth of July parade would be one example, the Pride parade another. In the first, it is the flag of the United States that is flown, and the floats are likely to be sponsored by local businesses and voluntary associations — boring groups like the Chamber of Commerce, the Kiwanis, or the local VFW. In the latter, it will be the rainbow flag flying everywhere, and the floats will be sponsored by global commercial entities like Citibank or Deloitte, as well as NGOs such as the Human Rights Campaign. Local businesses will have a conspicuous presence at the Pride parade as well, indicating their alignment with the moral center of gravity of the whole, to which one feels it is proper to show allegiance (just as in a Fourth of July parade circa 1960, but of course it is a different moral center). In 2023, both parades are conducted, but it is hard to say which has the flavor of officialdom and which is counter-cultural. It probably depends on what part of the country they take place in, and likely corresponds to an urban/rural divide as well.

If the Fourth of July is a performance of national unity, subsuming all to a common allegiance, the Pride parade instead enacts a distinction — between those who are encouraged to be proud (a minority), and those who are enjoined to recognize and celebrate the proud (the majority). It isn’t a hard distinction, because by celebrating the proud, an unproud member of the majority can elevate himself into the circle of affirmation. The proud have a generous and ecumenical spirit that may be accessed through the liturgy of allyship.

…

In September 2021, about fifteen thousand Haitian migrants flooded across the Rio Grande in Del Rio, Texas. Border Patrol agents were inconsistent in their response, largely passive under the gaze of so many news cameras, perhaps sensing that their ostensible mission as laid out in law is at odds with the basis on which the ruling party asserts its moral authority: humanitarianism. But at one point, a couple of Border Patrol agents on horseback undertook to prevent some migrants from crossing the river. The long reins of their horses looked enough like whips that they could be designated as such in a national press facing more demand than supply for images that could be tagged white supremacist. (That so many Border Patrol agents are Hispanic did not matter.) Perhaps the really offensive thing about the pictures of men on horseback was that they represented, not a bureaucratic immigration process (with its corresponding sociology) but spirited competence in the realm of material things. Horsemanship. None of the migrants were injured, but these images carried a political hazard. They evoked the founding self-image of the nation, providing an uncomfortable contrast to the managed, surveilled, and softened “human resource” material that is the preferred subject of post-democratic rule. Such energy was being discharged by the horsemen on behalf of the border, that sine qua non of the nation. This was all deeply wrong, from the perspective of the Party.

President Biden was unequivocal: “I promise you, those people will pay. There is an investigation underway right now and there will be consequences.” He meant the Border Patrol agents, not the illegal border crossers. The head of state spoke, not on behalf of the written laws of the state, but on behalf of the party-state, as upholder of the humanitarian morality. Here was a case where the nominal state ran directly up against the party-state, and it was clear where the real power resides.

I believe such episodes are surface manifestations of a deeper contest over the status of the nation as a political form.

Matthew Crawford, Minoritarian moralism, part one of three,

attempt[ing] to make sense of our current regime: how it works, what scripts it relies on to assert its legitimacy, and what the prospects are for its continuance. This first installment establishes the basic logic of the “party-state” and the function of what I am calling its “recognition clients” – sacred cows, more or less.

I’m in a bit of turmoil because Crawford distinguishes

two ideal types of representation: the delegate model and the trustee model. The delegate enters the legislature merely to channel the collective will of his constituents, whereas the trustee answers to the higher authority of his own conscience and understanding.

I cannot recall a time when I was not an advocate of what he calls the trustee model (and which I was wont to call “statesmanship” in those situations where the representative actually “knew better” than his constituents and voted accordingly — at some risk to his office if not his life). I remember heated arguments with my father-in-law, who clearly took the delegate view.

Yet what Crawford describes is the trustee model captured by ideologue technocrats and run amok in the name of their “recognition clients. I wait with bated breath for parts 2 and 3. If Crawford calls for abandoning the trustee model, I pretty sure he’ll lose me.

We are in the grip of a grim, despairing rebellion against reality that imagines itself to be the engine of moral progress.

R.R. Reno

The end of the world as we know it is not the end of the world.

You can read most of my more impromptu stuff here (cathartic venting) and here (the only social medium I frequent, because people there are quirky, pleasant and real). Both should work in your RSS aggregator, like Feedly or Reeder, should you want to make a habit of it. I’m even playing around a bit here, but uncertain whether I’ll persist.

Curated gems

The rest of the story

This has always been a staggering irony of the Snowden story: the primary attack on him by U.S. officials to impugn his motives and patriotism is that he lives in Russia and thus likely cooperated with Russian authorities (a claim for which no evidence has ever been presented), when the reality is that Snowden would have left Russia eight years ago after a 30-minute stay in its airport had U.S. officials not used a series of maneuvers that barred him from leaving.

Glenn Greenwald, ‌As Anger Toward Belarus Mounts, Recall the 2013 Forced Landing of Bolivia’s Plane to Find Snowden. Indeed, in 2013, the U.S. used another series of maneuvers to divert Bolivia’s presidential jet and force its landing in Austria, with the President aboard it, on the basis of false suspicions that Edward Snowden was on it.

  • “France has apologised to Bolivia after Paris admitted barring the Bolivian president’s plane from entering French air space because of rumors Edward Snowden was on board.”
  • Spain also ended up apologizing to Bolivia. Its then-Foreign Minister cryptically admitted: "They told us they were sure… that he was on board.” Though the Spanish official refused to specify who the "they” was — as if there were any doubts — he acknowledged that the assurances they got that Snowden was on board Morales’ plane was the only reason they took the actions they did to force the plane of the Bolivian leader to land.
  • Given that it was only the U.S. which was so desperate to get their hands on Snowden — they had already used Vice President Biden to lead a highly coercive effort to threaten countries with punishment if they gave him asylum — few doubted where this false intelligence originated and who was behind the unprecedented act of forcing a presidential plane to land. Indeed, all of this was so glaringly obvious that not even the U.S. government was willing to deny it.

So you might want to modulate the outrage at Belarus — or ramp up the skepticism about our own purity.

Parachute efficacy randomized control trial

Parachute use did not significantly reduce death or major injury (0% for parachute v 0% for control; P>0.9). This finding was consistent across multiple subgroups. Compared with individuals screened but not enrolled, participants included in the study were on aircraft at significantly lower altitude (mean of 0.6 m for participants v mean of 9146 m for non-participants; P<0.001) and lower velocity (mean of 0 km/h v mean of 800 km/h; P<0.001).

Conclusions Parachute use did not reduce death or major traumatic injury when jumping from aircraft in the first randomized evaluation of this intervention. However, the trial was only able to enroll participants on small stationary aircraft on the ground, suggesting cautious extrapolation to high altitude jumps.

Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma when jumping from aircraft: randomized controlled trial | The BMJ. For possible applications, see Slate Star Codex.

Is the Vice-President "Asian"?

If you work in a massage parlor, you likely come from, and are in, a very different economic situation from the one Kamala Harris has inhabited most of her life … What does Harris’s life have to do with theirs, when it comes to any of the stuff that matters? …

In theory, of course, the connection is that Harris is part-Asian, and the victims (well, the ones mentioned in the Politico story), were Asian. But I feel like I should be putting that term — ‘Asian’ — in scare quotes. These particular victims were mostly Korean. So on paper Harris, like the victims, has “Asian heritage.” But I ask you in good faith: What the hell does this mean? The distance from the part of India where Harris’ mother is from to Seoul is about 3,300 miles. These are entirely different civilizations. Even the most racially ignorant rube would be unlikely to mistake someone of Indian descent with someone of Korean descent. And of course even here the language is extremely slippery, because India, in particular, is quite ethnically and linguistically complicated, as one would expect of a gargantuan country of almost 1.4 billion people.

…

I’m just not sure there’s any way to conceive of a concept of ‘Asianness’ that 1) includes both Kamala Harris and the victims of the massage-parlor murders and 2) doesn’t horseshoe into something redolent of old-school racism or Orientalism.

Jesse Singal, On Kamala Harris’s Privileged Upbringing And Why It Matters

He’s right. I, too, have been bothered by the inclusion of Indians as "Asian." Not in common parlance, they’re not.

I’ll second what the self-loathing woman said

Keira Bell was a troubled fourteen-year-old living in England. Daughter of an unemployed, alcoholic mother, she was distressed by the physical changes brought on by puberty. Her mother and others suggested that perhaps she really wanted to be a boy. Keira adopted their idea. At age fifteen, she was referred by a government psychologist to the Gender Identity Development Service. By age sixteen, she was being given a drug regimen of puberty blockers. The National Health Service continued its ministrations with a double mastectomy at twenty. After that surgery, Bell came to some realizations: “I recognized that gender dysphoria was a symptom of my overall misery, not its cause.” Looking back, she says, “I had so many issues that it was comforting to think I really had only one that needed solving: I was a male in a female body. But it was the job of the professionals to consider all my co-morbidities, not just to affirm my naive hope that everything could be solved with hormones and surgery.” Bell sums up: “I was an unhappy girl who needed help. Instead, I was treated like an experiment.”

Some years ago, I asked Paul McHugh, former chief of psychiatry at Johns Hopkins, what could stop the medical profession’s adoption of the monstrously destructive transgender ideology. He replied, “When these kids grow up and realize what has been done to them, the lawsuits will be ruinous.” Bell did exactly that. In 2020, a panel of High Court judges issued a unanimous verdict to the effect that Bell’s treatment amounted to an unscientific experiment with life-altering consequences. The Court severely restricted the use of puberty blockers and hormone treatments for children under sixteen. The clinic is appealing the ruling.

It is my hope that people like Keira Bell find the right malpractice lawyers and win billions of dollars in damages. For those severely harmed by the transgender mania, this would be a good start toward something like justice.

R.R. Reno (emphasis added).

Everyone other than "desisters" are labeled "transphobic" for hesistancy about the trans mania, but perhaps desisters can escape with nothing worse than "self-loathing."

Diary this one for a month from now

France, Debray notes, has obligingly assimilated such anglicisms as gender studies, Gay Pride, revenge porn, and #MeToo, along with the collective self-loathing they are meant to carry with them. Since Debray has always been attentive to the role of privilege and guilt in his own early revolutionary enthusiasms, this is a subject that interests him greatly. “The stigma of being a bourgeois oppressor was not irremediable,” he recalls. “You could join the Communist party, a trade union, or a guerrilla commando in Mozambique. But white privilege? Where do you go to get over that? The dermatologist?”

Christopher Caldwell, ‌Régis Debray, Radical Conservative

As I read this fascinating profile (probably paywalled for another month or so), I kept thinking "ironic distancing" of Debray from his revolutionary past, and Caldwell himself eventually so characterized it.

If Debray carries a lesson for his twentieth-century readers, perhaps it is that the French radical tradition really is a tradition, as dedicated to rules, rituals, and reverence as any other.

The sure-fire short-cut to Heaven

My favorite part of Matins may be what I call martyr wordplay. Example:

On this day the holy Martyr Seleucus, having been sawn asunder, was perfected in martyrdom.
Verse: Without a groan, Seleucus bears the sawing
And so saw the saw as a short cut to Heaven.

I’m not kidding. Many of the Martys, while not seeking out martyrdom, welcomed it when it sought them out. I’m just following their lead — in enjoying the wordplay.

Like Mother, Like Daughter

England truly, and enduringly, is "the Mother Country." It’s like — wow! — a parallel universe!

You can read most of my more impromptu stuff at here. It should work in your RSS aggregator, like Feedly, should you want to make a habit of it.

Signs for awakening

The rescue of thirty-some Chilean miners, to exclamations of “It’s a miracle!,” prompted a grumpy young agnostic of my acquaintance to say some churlish things, whereupon I replied in the same tone. We may have achieved mutual semi-comprehention, but not much more.

On even something as benign as expressions of thanks to God (to the superficial neglect of His instruments — “It’s a technology!” just doesn’t have the same ring), we seem, like those at the Tower of Babel, to lack a common imagination behind our superficially identical English. Continue reading “Signs for awakening” →

Can we trust peer-review? Still?

Interesting thoughts on the scientific idea of “peer review.” This is not meant to bash “climate science” in particular, though it is a recent, high-profile example of a peer review process that may have been rigged. (I have no horse in the climate-science race because we’re running out of fossil-fuels and need major adjustments in how we live regardless of climate effects.)

That self-interest skews the peer review process shows, I think, the folly of thinking that a process (e.g., peer review) can ever make virtue (e.g., gimlet-eyed objectivity and honesty) obsolete. Virtue is, among other things, what allows us to do the right thing even when it’s not in our self-interest.